Technology forecasting is one of the most formidable challenges facing many organizations. In A Manager's Guide..., Stephen Millet and Edward Honton provide a guide for corporate and technology managers, planners, and analysts looking for a foundation on which to base technological forecasts and decision making. The authors assess 20 forecasting methods, evaluate their advantages and disadvantages, and suggest applications and uses. This book provides a profile of the technology forecasting and strategy analysis methods available today to guide input to the corporate decision-making process. Trend Analyses: Trend Extrapolation, Time Series Estimation, Regression Analysis, Econometrics, Systems Dynamics, S-Curves, Historical Analogies, Input-Output Matrices, Patent Trend Analysis, Scientific Literature Analysis, New Trend Analyses Techniques. Expert Judgment: Interviews, Questionnaires, Group Dynamics Multi-Option Analyses: Scenarios, Simulations, Paths and Trees, Portfolio Analysis Conclusions: Forecasts, Recommendations for Managersaquot;An Examination of Factors Contributing to Delphi Accuracy, aquot; Journal of Forecasting, 3 (April-June 1984), pp 173-182. Pavitt, K. aquot;R ... Systems Analysis and Policy Planning. ... Stacey, Gary S. Tech Forecasting and the TECH-RISK ARRAY: Linking Raamp;D and Strategic Business Decisions. ... aquot;Scenarios: Uncharted Waters Ahead, aquot; Harvard Business Review, 63 98 A MANAGERa#39;S GUIDE TO TECHNOLOGYanbsp;...
|Title||:||A Manager's Guide to Technology Forecasting and Strategy Analysis Methods|
|Author||:||Stephen M. Millett, Edward J. Honton|