The first surprising outcome revealed by the analysis of the within-cohort probability of making the transition from grade one to ... in Beijing in the 1994 cohort is 4.89 times more likely to make the transition to ninth grade than a student in Xizang. ... Trends. in. Educational. Opportunity. Looking at the first major transition in schooling a from elementary to junior high ... of Educational Opportunity in Chinaaquot;, which is available at www.wider.unu.edu/ publications/rps/ rps2006/rp2006-66.pdf.