Forecasting the Internet

Forecasting the Internet

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David O. Loomis Illinois State University The explosive growth of the Internet has caught most industry experts off guard. While data communications was expected to be the qwave of the future, q few industry observers foresaw how rapid the change in focus from voice communications towards data would be. Understanding the data communications revolution has become an urgent priority for many in the telecommunications industry. Demand analysis and forecasting are critical tools to understanding these trends for both Internet access and Internet backbone service. Businesses have led residential customers in the demand for data services, but residential demand is currently increasing exponentiall y. Even as business demand for data communications is becoming better understood, residential broadband access demand is still largely unexplored. Cable modems and ADSL appear to be the current residential broadband choices yet demand elasticities and econometric model-based forecasts for these services are not currently available. The responsiveness of customers to price and income changes and customer's perceptions of the tradeoff in product characteristics between cable modems and ADSL is largely unknown. Demand for Internet access is derived from the demand for applications which utilize this access; access is not demanded independent of its usage. Thus it is important to understand Internet applications in order to understand the demand for access.Economically efficient recovery of the total cost of an Internet-bound call that traverses both types of networks should ideally ... In a competitive ISP market, why dona#39;t the prices for dial-up access service conform to the efficient price structure?

Title:Forecasting the Internet
Author:David G. Loomis, Lester D. Taylor
Publisher:Springer Science & Business Media - 2012-12-06


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