How to Predict the Unpredictable

How to Predict the Unpredictable

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We are hard-wired to believe that the world is more predictable than it is. We chase a€˜winning streaksa€™ that are often just illusions, and we are all too predictable exactly when we try hardest not to be. In the 1970s, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky coined the phrase a€˜representativenessa€™ to describe the psychology of this behaviour. Since then representativeness has been used by auditors to catch people fiddling their tax returns and by hedge fund managers to reap billions from the emotions of small investors. Now Poundstone for the first time makes these techniques fun, easy, and profitable for everyone, in the everyday situations that matter. Youa€™ll learn how to tackle multiple choice tests, what internet passwords to avoid, how to up your odds of winning the office Premier League sweepstakes, and the best ways to invest your money.Few people realize how often Amazon, Walmart, Target, and other big retailers change their prices. Most consumer ... Those who pay the best price at the wrong time can shell out double what someone else did a few days before or afterward. On the next page is a price chart for a Microsoft Xbox 360 (Limited Edition Gears of War 3 bundle) as reported by the pricetracking app These are the anbsp;...

Title:How to Predict the Unpredictable
Author:William Poundstone
Publisher:Oneworld Publications - 2014-04-09


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