Mathematical modelling has become in recent years an essential tool for the prediction of environmental change and for the development of sustainable policies. Yet, many of the uncertainties associated with modelling efforts appear poorly understood by many, especially by policy makers. This book attempts for the first time to cover the full range of issues related to model uncertainties, from the subjectivity of setting up a conceptual model of a given system, all the way to communicating the nature of model uncertainties to non-scientists and accounting for model uncertainties in policy decisions. Theoretical chapters, providing background information on specific steps in the modelling process and in the adoption of models by end-users, are complemented by illustrative case studies dealing with soils and global climate change. All the chapters are authored by recognized experts in their respective disciplines, and provide a timely and uniquely comprehensive coverage of an important field.The use of truncation in the sampling resulted in a decrease in the probability of exceeding (pdf 1 vs. pdf 2; pdf 4 vs. pdf ... I¼g La1 95% probability 99% probability pdf 1 0 20 40 60 DT50 values (days) DT50 values (days) 80 100 120 140 160 0anbsp;...
|Title||:||Uncertainties in Environmental Modelling and Consequences for Policy Making|
|Author||:||Philippe Baveye, Jaroslav Mysiak, Magdeline Laba|
|Publisher||:||Springer Science & Business Media - 2009-05-14|